Michael Mace's insight on Microsoft's steady assault on RIM
Mobile Opportunity: Microsoft vs. RIM Blackberry: This time we mean it (sort of)
Michael Mace makes an interesting point on his Mobile Opportunity Blog regarding Microsoft’s continued assault on RIM’s core business and market leadership.
He brings an interesting perspective having been through similar situations both with Apple and Palm.
Mace correctly notes in this and other postings that the mobile space is different than the traditional Computer business and even the Handheld business. He sees the possibility for multiple “winners” in terms of which phone or converged device will be most popular.
However, it’s his comments on Microsoft competing with RIM in the server business that caught my eye. This is where Microsoft has a huge advantage over all middleware players. In my opinion, many IT managers will simply wait for Microsoft to evolve its solution until it is available in the servers they are already purchasing and administrating and where appropriate clients are available on the majority of devices they are considering purchasing or have previously deployed.
Although Windows Mobile 5 devices are just now hitting the market, and often WITHOUT the direct push capability available in Exchange Server 2003 SP2, this is a short lived-problem. I expect 2006 to be a year with a number of device announcements showcasing Windows Mobile 5 and Direct Push. By the time organizations start seriously thinking about migration plans for Exchange 12 and Office 2007, the Windows Mobile story and devices will be well established. In addition, Microsoft’s aggressive licensing of Exchange ActiveSync protocol will allow for other devices to be covered, either by having it included in the phones or as an inexpensive software purchase and installation.
The thing about this approach of Microsoft's is that they don't have to match every one of RIM's features in order to be successful. They can probably have a winning solution by providing a 90% or even an 80% solution, as long as there is basic email access, PIM synchronization (contacts and calendar) and secure connections. This is all available today and the solution will only evolve. There will always be IT departments who have additional needs in terms of security, control and deployment - and BlackBerry, GoodLink, Visto and other solutions will be there to provide solutions for these customers despite Microsoft's offerings.
Mace also points out that one of Microsoft's purported advantages is that access doesn't require special data plans. He questions whether carriers won't want to try and squeeze out additional profits from those who want and need these capabilities. I think that the carriers will try mightily to hang on to these premium pricing plans for mobile data, but that they won't be able to do that for long. Over time, wireless data services will become much more like the "internet pipe" that the home broadband market has become here in the US. This will take time, but I think it will be inevitable.